AA 2101 · MCI → PHX

departs 2:14 PM CT · arrives 3:14 PM MT

Forecast issued Thu 8:00 PM ET · 5h after departure

Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±0 pts −4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to PHX?

On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 700 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 1.8 in of rain forecast at MCI that day

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into PHX at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

↓ MCI usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

MCI (origin) Gusts27 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility1 mi Precip0.91 in

PHX (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2101 · MCI → PHX

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHX?