AA 2142 · BGR → PHL

departs 4:33 PM ET · arrives 6:39 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 5:00 AM ET · 12h before departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

27% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PHL?

On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into PHL at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

BGR (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility0.25 mi Precipnone

PHL (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2142 · BGR → PHL

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHL?