AA 2153 · DFW → MEM

departs 4:44 PM CT · arrives 6:30 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 4h after departure

Arrive at MEM more than 15 minutes late?

68% chance · ±0 pts −10 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to MEM?

On time or early
30%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
20%
1–2 hours late
22%
Over 2 hours late
11%
Cancelled
7%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 4.7 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at DFW that day

↑ 4pm departures from DFW are often late

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility1 mi Precip4.07 in

MEM (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling3,900 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.02 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2153 · DFW → MEM

Odds over time

How late will it get to MEM?