AA 2159 · ORD → ABQ

departs 7:13 PM CT · arrives 9:29 PM MT

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at ABQ more than 15 minutes late?

77% chance · ±0 pts +6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to ABQ?

On time or early
23%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
26%
1–2 hours late
27%
Over 2 hours late
8%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,000 ft, 0.7 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ 7pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility2 mi Precip1.48 in

ABQ (destination) Gusts23 kt Ceiling6,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2159 · ORD → ABQ

Odds over time

How late will it get to ABQ?