AA 2169 · ORD → LAS

departs 6:55 AM CT · arrives 8:57 AM PT

Forecast issued Thu 2:00 AM ET · 6h before departure

Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?

15% chance · ±0 pts −11 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to LAS?

On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 26% of the time recently

↑ Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.87 in

LAS (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2169 · ORD → LAS

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAS?