AA 2178 · DFW → LGA

departs 9:31 AM CT · arrives 2:11 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 8:00 PM ET · 14h before departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

58% chance · ±4 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LGA?

On time or early
35%
15–30 min late
25%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
16%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 700 ft, 2.4 in of rain forecast at DFW that day

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 9am departures from DFW are often late

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility4 mi Precip2.36 in

LGA (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling10,000 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2178 · DFW → LGA

Odds over time

How late will it get to LGA?