AA 2187 · DFW → TUS

departs 10:49 AM CT · arrives 11:24 AM MT

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 10h after departure

Arrive at TUS more than 15 minutes late?

91% chance · ±5 pts +22 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to TUS?

On time or early
7%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
21%
1–2 hours late
18%
Over 2 hours late
15%
Cancelled
20%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,167 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 2.0 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at DFW that day

↑ 10am departures from DFW are often late

↑ DFW is prone to delays

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility1 mi Precip4.07 in

TUS (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2187 · DFW → TUS

Odds over time

How late will it get to TUS?