AA 2192 · ORD → PHX

departs 10:36 AM CT · arrives 12:27 PM MT

Forecast issued Thu 9:00 PM ET · 9h after departure

Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?

40% chance · ±0 pts −6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to PHX?

On time or early
59%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ 10am departures from ORD are often late

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility2 mi Precip1.19 in

PHX (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2192 · ORD → PHX

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHX?