AA 2223 · LGA → ORD

departs 9:35 AM ET · arrives 11:13 AM CT

Forecast issued Thu 7:00 AM ET · 3h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

40% chance · ±0 pts +21 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
59%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
18%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

LGA (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ORD (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.88 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2223 · LGA → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?