AA 2238 · LGA → DFW

departs 6:57 PM ET · arrives 9:39 PM CT

Forecast issued Wed 11:00 PM ET · 20h before departure

Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?

66% chance · ±5 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DFW?

On time or early
31%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
20%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
19%
Cancelled
8%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 900 ft, 1.9 in of rain forecast at DFW that day

↑ DFW is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

LGA (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

DFW (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility3 mi Precip1.93 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2238 · LGA → DFW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DFW?