AA 2256 · DFW → TPA

departs 6:26 PM CT · arrives 10:08 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 1:00 AM ET · 18h before departure

Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?

85% chance · ±2 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to TPA?

On time or early
12%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
19%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
20%
Cancelled
20%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 900 ft, 1.9 in of rain forecast at DFW that day

↑ 0.3 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at TPA that day

↑ 6pm departures from DFW are often late

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceiling1,033 ft Visibility3 mi Precip1.87 in

TPA (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.33 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2256 · DFW → TPA

Odds over time

How late will it get to TPA?