Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2275 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1 Yesterday

AA 2275 · PBI → ORD

departs 6:54 PM ET · arrives 9:29 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

76% chance · ±3 pts +13 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
21%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
18%
Over 2 hours late
20%
Cancelled
11%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,000 ft, 0.7 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ Gusts to 40 kt, visibility down to 0.75 mi, 2.0 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at PBI that day

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↓ Other factors

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

PBI (origin) Gusts40 kt Ceiling1,600 ft Visibility0.75 mi Precip1.95 in

ORD (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility2 mi Precip1.48 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2275 · PBI → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?