AA 2292 · AUS → JFK

departs 6:06 AM CT · arrives 11:00 AM ET

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 AM ET · 21h before departure

Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?

7% chance · ±1 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to JFK?

On time or early
92%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 800 ft, 1.6 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at AUS that day

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK

Weather at each end

AUS (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling800 ft Visibility5.66667 mi Precip1.56 in

JFK (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2292 · AUS → JFK

Odds over time

How late will it get to JFK?