Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2296 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1 Yesterday

AA 2296 · ORD → PIT

departs 5:30 PM CT · arrives 8:09 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 4h after departure

Arrive at PIT more than 15 minutes late?

69% chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to PIT?

On time or early
30%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
28%
1–2 hours late
25%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,000 ft, 0.7 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ 5pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↓ PIT usually runs smoothly

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility2 mi Precip1.48 in

PIT (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2296 · ORD → PIT

Odds over time

How late will it get to PIT?