AA 2375 · SAT → PHX

departs 3:31 PM CT · arrives 4:10 PM MT

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 6h after departure

Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?

44% chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to PHX?

On time or early
52%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
10%
Cancelled
7%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 25 kt, visibility down to 2 mi, 3.0 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at SAT that day

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

↓ SAT usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

SAT (origin) Gusts25 kt Ceiling540 ft Visibility1.5 mi Precip3.40 in

PHX (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2375 · SAT → PHX

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHX?