AA 2404 · PHL → BOS

departs 8:11 PM ET · arrives 9:38 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 3:00 PM ET · 5h before departure

Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?

46% chance · ±0 pts +9 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to BOS?

On time or early
53%
15–30 min late
25%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
18%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into BOS at that hour are often late

↑ 8pm departures from PHL are often late

↓ Cloud base down to 900 ft forecast at PHL that day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BOS

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

BOS (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2404 · PHL → BOS

Odds over time

How late will it get to BOS?