AA 2416 · ORD → EWR

departs 10:20 AM CT · arrives 1:49 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 8:00 PM ET · 9h after departure

Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?

31% chance · ±0 pts −13 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to EWR?

On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 10am departures from ORD are often late

↓ Other factors

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility2 mi Precip1.81 in

EWR (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling5,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2416 · ORD → EWR

Odds over time

How late will it get to EWR?