AA 2438 · DFW → IAH

departs 5:12 PM CT · arrives 6:30 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 4h after departure

Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?

81% chance · ±2 pts −3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to IAH?

On time or early
17%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
28%
1–2 hours late
25%
Over 2 hours late
12%
Cancelled
8%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 4.2 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at DFW that day

↑ 5pm departures from DFW are often late

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility1 mi Precip4.07 in

IAH (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling2,500 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.05 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2438 · DFW → IAH

Odds over time

How late will it get to IAH?