AA 2465 · DFW → SNA

departs 12:21 PM CT · arrives 1:48 PM PT

Forecast issued Thu 7:00 PM ET · 6h after departure

Arrive at SNA more than 15 minutes late?

73% chance · ±0 pts +9 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SNA?

On time or early
23%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
27%
1–2 hours late
13%
Over 2 hours late
8%
Cancelled
14%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Visibility down to 1 mi, 6.4 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at DFW that day

↑ DFW is prone to delays

↑ 12pm departures from DFW are often late

↓ Other factors

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility1 mi Precip4.17 in

SNA (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2465 · DFW → SNA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SNA?