AA 2465 · SNA → DFW

departs 2:25 PM PT · arrives 7:31 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 5h after departure

Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?

64% chance · ±0 pts −12 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to DFW?

On time or early
34%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
22%
Over 2 hours late
9%
Cancelled
6%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 4.7 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at DFW that day

↑ Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↓ Other factors

↓ Cloud base down to 700 ft forecast at SNA that day

Weather at each end

SNA (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

DFW (destination) Gusts24 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility1 mi Precip4.07 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2465 · SNA → DFW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DFW?