Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2477SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
AA 2477 · PHX → SAN
departs 10:30 AM MT · arrives 11:47 AM PT
Forecast issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · 42h before departure
Odds over time
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
28%chance · ±1 pts+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE AREModerate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
How late will it get to SAN?
On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.