AA 2483 · BTV → PHL

departs 3:09 PM ET · arrives 4:57 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 7h after departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

28% chance · ±0 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to PHL?

On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into PHL at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 29% of the time recently

↓ Cloud base down to 900 ft forecast at PHL that day

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

BTV (origin) Gusts23 kt Ceiling4,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PHL (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2483 · BTV → PHL

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHL?