AA 2485 · ORD → JFK

departs 1:46 PM CT · arrives 5:14 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 7h after departure

Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?

58% chance · ±0 pts +8 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to JFK?

On time or early
41%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
27%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
11%
Cancelled
4%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.0 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 27% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility2 mi Precip1.48 in

JFK (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2485 · ORD → JFK

Odds over time

How late will it get to JFK?