AA 2487 · DFW → STL

departs 6:00 PM CT · arrives 7:59 PM CT

Forecast issued Wed 11:00 PM ET · 20h before departure

Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?

68% chance · ±5 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to STL?

On time or early
25%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
18%
Over 2 hours late
8%
Cancelled
20%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 900 ft, 1.9 in of rain forecast at DFW that day

↑ 6pm departures from DFW are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 1,000 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at STL that day

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ STL usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility3 mi Precip1.93 in

STL (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceiling1,000 ft Visibility8.66667 mi Precip0.33 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2487 · DFW → STL

Odds over time

How late will it get to STL?