AA 2502 · PHL → MCO

departs 2:20 PM ET · arrives 5:08 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 3:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±0 pts −6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to MCO?

On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO

↓ Other factors

↓ Cloud base down to 900 ft forecast at PHL that day

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MCO (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.02 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2502 · PHL → MCO

Odds over time

How late will it get to MCO?