AA 2504 · ORD → IAH

departs 6:51 AM CT · arrives 9:29 AM CT

Forecast issued Thu 7:00 AM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?

38% chance · ±2 pts −3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to IAH?

On time or early
60%
15–30 min late
22%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ 0.3 in of rain forecast at IAH that day

↑ IAH is prone to delays

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Arrivals into IAH at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.88 in

IAH (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.30 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2504 · ORD → IAH

Odds over time

How late will it get to IAH?