AA 2512 · TPA → DFW

departs 7:55 PM ET · arrives 9:48 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?

63% chance · ±1 pts −16 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to DFW?

On time or early
34%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
31%
1–2 hours late
13%
Over 2 hours late
12%
Cancelled
10%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Visibility down to 2 mi, 1.4 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at TPA that day

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 4.2 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at DFW that day

↑ Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

TPA (origin) Gusts23 kt Ceiling3,400 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.57 in

DFW (destination) Gusts24 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility1 mi Precip4.07 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2512 · TPA → DFW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DFW?