Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2516 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1

AA 2516 · DSM → PHX

departs 2:26 PM CT · arrives 3:24 PM MT

Forecast issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · 43h before departure

Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?

20% chance · ±2 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PHX?

On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 1.6 in of rain forecast at DSM that day

↑ PHX is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into PHX at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

↓ DSM usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

DSM (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility1 mi Precip1.64 in

PHX (destination) Gusts5 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2516 · DSM → PHX

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHX?