Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2522 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1 Yesterday

AA 2522 · PHL → SEA

departs 6:21 PM ET · arrives 9:35 PM PT

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 4h after departure

Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?

37% chance · ±2 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SEA?

On time or early
62%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into SEA at that hour are often late

↑ 6pm departures from PHL are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SEA

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SEA (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling5,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2522 · PHL → SEA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SEA?