Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 254 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow

AA 254 · OGG → LAX

departs 1:14 PM HT · arrives 9:40 PM PT

Forecast issued Wed 4:00 AM ET · 39h before departure

Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?

15% chance · ±1 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LAX?

On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into LAX at that hour are often late

↑ LAX is prone to delays

↑ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Cloud base down to 800 ft forecast at LAX that day

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

OGG (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceiling4,800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LAX (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling800 ft Visibility5 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 254 · OGG → LAX

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAX?