AA 2561 · ORD → RSW

departs 12:13 PM CT · arrives 4:10 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 7:00 PM ET · 6h after departure

Arrive at RSW more than 15 minutes late?

64% chance · ±0 pts +6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to RSW?

On time or early
34%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
22%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
12%
Cancelled
7%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.0 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ 0.4 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at RSW that day

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility2.5 mi Precip1.01 in

RSW (destination) Gusts47 kt Ceiling2,500 ft Visibility1.25 mi Precip0.74 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2561 · ORD → RSW

Odds over time

How late will it get to RSW?