AA 2592 · CMH → PHL

departs 6:45 PM ET · arrives 8:33 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 7:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±4 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to PHL?

On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into PHL at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Cloud base down to 900 ft forecast at PHL that day

↓ CMH usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

CMH (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PHL (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2592 · CMH → PHL

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHL?