AA 2630 · PHL → SLC

departs 7:37 PM ET · arrives 10:31 PM MT

Forecast issued Thu 1:00 PM ET · 7h before departure

Arrive at SLC more than 15 minutes late?

45% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SLC?

On time or early
55%
15–30 min late
20%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
17%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 7pm departures from PHL are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SLC

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SLC (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2630 · PHL → SLC

Odds over time

How late will it get to SLC?