Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2645 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1

AA 2645 · MCI → PHX

departs 6:01 AM CT · arrives 6:50 AM MT

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 33h before departure

Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?

13% chance · ±2 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PHX?

On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.7 in of rain forecast at MCI that day

↑ PHX is prone to delays

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ 6am departures from MCI are usually not late

Weather at each end

MCI (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility2 mi Precip1.67 in

PHX (destination) Gusts6 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2645 · MCI → PHX

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHX?