AA 2661 · ONT → PHX

departs 1:12 PM PT · arrives 2:45 PM MT

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 6h after departure

Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?

26% chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to PHX?

On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into PHX at that hour are often late

↑ 1pm departures from ONT are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ONT

Weather at each end

ONT (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PHX (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2661 · ONT → PHX

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHX?