AA 2672 · TPA → PHL

departs 6:22 PM ET · arrives 9:18 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 4h after departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

41% chance · ±0 pts −11 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to PHL?

On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Visibility down to 2 mi, 1.4 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at TPA that day

↑ 6pm departures from TPA are often late

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↓ Cloud base down to 900 ft forecast at PHL that day

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

TPA (origin) Gusts23 kt Ceiling3,400 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.57 in

PHL (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2672 · TPA → PHL

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHL?