AA 2698 · DFW → ABQ

departs 6:23 PM CT · arrives 7:20 PM MT

Forecast issued Thu 8:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at ABQ more than 15 minutes late?

68% chance · ±0 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to ABQ?

On time or early
30%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
23%
1–2 hours late
18%
Over 2 hours late
8%
Cancelled
5%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 4.2 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at DFW that day

↑ 6pm departures from DFW are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility1 mi Precip4.11 in

ABQ (destination) Gusts23 kt Ceiling6,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2698 · DFW → ABQ

Odds over time

How late will it get to ABQ?