Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2710 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow

AA 2710 · IAH → PHX

departs 2:25 PM CT · arrives 3:16 PM MT

Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 40h before departure

Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?

31% chance · ±3 pts −6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PHX?

On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at IAH

↑ PHX is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into PHX at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

IAH (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.15 in

PHX (destination) Gusts6 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2710 · IAH → PHX

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHX?