AA 2721 · PHX → PHL

departs 1:14 PM MT · arrives 9:14 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 6h after departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

41% chance · ±2 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to PHL?

On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
22%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 1pm departures from PHX are often late

↑ Arrivals into PHL at that hour are often late

↓ Cloud base down to 900 ft forecast at PHL that day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PHL (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2721 · PHX → PHL

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHL?