AA 2727 · LGA → RDU

departs 10:32 AM ET · arrives 12:16 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 3:00 AM ET · 8h before departure

Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to RDU?

On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 49% of the time recently

↑ 10am departures from LGA are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at RDU

Weather at each end

LGA (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

RDU (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2727 · LGA → RDU

Odds over time

How late will it get to RDU?