Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2741 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow

AA 2741 · STT → JFK

departs 11:39 AM AST · arrives 3:59 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 4:00 AM ET · 32h before departure

Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?

11% chance · ±1 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to JFK?

On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 0.3 in of rain forecast at STT that day

↑ This flight has been late 32% of the time recently

↓ STT usually runs smoothly

↓ 11am departures from STT are usually not late

Weather at each end

STT (origin) Gusts25 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.31 in

JFK (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling8,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2741 · STT → JFK

Odds over time

How late will it get to JFK?