AA 2814 · SFO → ORD

departs 9:16 AM PT · arrives 3:43 PM CT

Forecast issued Wed 11:00 PM ET · 13h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

48% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
49%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
14%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
7%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,300 ft, 0.9 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

ORD (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.86 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2814 · SFO → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?