AA 2817 · SFO → ORD

departs 5:18 PM PT · arrives 11:39 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 2:00 PM ET · 6h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

58% chance · ±0 pts +13 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
41%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
42%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
4%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 800 ft, 0.8 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↓ Cloud base down to 500 ft forecast at SFO that day

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility6 mi Precipnone

ORD (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling800 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.76 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2817 · SFO → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?