AA 2825 · EWR → PHX

departs 10:55 AM ET · arrives 1:17 PM MT

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 AM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?

18% chance · ±1 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to PHX?

On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ PHX is prone to delays

↑ 10am departures from EWR are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR

Weather at each end

EWR (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling5,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PHX (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2825 · EWR → PHX

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHX?