AA 2834 · DFW → SJC

departs 11:58 AM CT · arrives 1:56 PM PT

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 9h after departure

Arrive at SJC more than 15 minutes late?

71% chance · ±0 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SJC?

On time or early
24%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
26%
1–2 hours late
14%
Over 2 hours late
14%
Cancelled
20%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Visibility down to 1 mi, 6.4 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at DFW that day

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ DFW is prone to delays

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Cloud base down to 700 ft forecast at SJC that day

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility1 mi Precip4.07 in

SJC (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility6 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2834 · DFW → SJC

Odds over time

How late will it get to SJC?