AA 2845 · ORD → SAT

departs 11:31 AM CT · arrives 2:35 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 9:00 PM ET · 8h after departure

Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?

63% chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SAT?

On time or early
35%
15–30 min late
26%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
7%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.0 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ 2.1 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at SAT that day

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↓ Arrivals into SAT at that hour are usually not late

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility2 mi Precip1.19 in

SAT (destination) Gusts25 kt Ceiling567 ft Visibility1.5 mi Precip3.38 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2845 · ORD → SAT

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAT?