AA 2845 · SAT → ORD

departs 2:51 PM CT · arrives 5:50 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 12:00 PM ET · 4h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

68% chance · ±0 pts −9 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
30%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
33%
Over 2 hours late
22%
Cancelled
6%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 2.1 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at SAT that day

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.0 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ SAT usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

SAT (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling1,600 ft Visibility7 mi Precip2.06 in

ORD (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.96 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2845 · SAT → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?