AA 2856 · ORD → SFO

departs 7:11 PM CT · arrives 10:14 PM PT

Forecast issued Thu 5:00 AM ET · 15h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

58% chance · ±7 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
42%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
19%
1–2 hours late
14%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ 7pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↓ Cloud base down to 200 ft forecast at SFO that day

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.90 in

SFO (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility3 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2856 · ORD → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?