Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2858SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tomorrow
AA 2858 · JAX → PHX
departs 8:00 AM ET · arrives 9:21 AM MT
Forecast issued Wed 10:00 AM ET · 22h before departure
Odds over time
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
10%chance · ±0 pts+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE AREGood. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
How late will it get to PHX?
On time or early
89%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.