Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2864 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow

AA 2864 · DFW → LAS

departs 4:58 PM CT · arrives 5:48 PM PT

Forecast issued Wed 1:00 AM ET · 41h before departure

Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?

58% chance · ±10 pts −8 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LAS?

On time or early
38%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
18%
Over 2 hours late
9%
Cancelled
10%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, 1.6 in of rain forecast at DFW that day

↑ 4pm departures from DFW are often late

↑ DFW is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility3 mi Precip1.58 in

LAS (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2864 · DFW → LAS

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAS?